It's in the Stars
Article by LEAD Director Garth Nowland-Foreman
What will the future look like for Nonprofits?
Recently, Social Trend Spotter asked fellow trend-spotters and sector visionaries what the sector will look like in the next 30 years. Suzanne Smith summarised the most mentioned ideas, predictions and aspirations, which we’ve collated below:
Blended value
“In the future, the nonprofit and for-profit sector will converge to allow for heightened creativity, investment and spending around important social issues. Society will have greater acceptance for nonprofits that make money through great ideas and for-profits that fight for social causes more intentionally.” Based on what she hears from her Gen Z students, Smith says “the trend is already moving in this direction”.
Abundant business models
“In 2053, the social space will be defined by an abundance philosophy, in which nonprofits see the connection between innovation and impact, as well as risk and reward. Nonprofits will move from being service-providers to being solution-providers, focused on impact and scale through more than just programmes. As well as this, nonprofits will not be judged by an arbitrary overhead rate, but rather by the impact created per dollar, which will drive demand for social sector jobs.”
Cross-sector, holistic collaboration
“Thirty years from now, true collaboration will be the norm, with increased engagement and connection with government and business, as more viable means to create solutions. The sector will be more comfortable with managing conflict and thinking “outside the silos” for better solutions. There will be more social sector organisations engaging in shared services and ecosystem building. Entrepreneurs will value bringing their talent to existing nonprofits as intrapreneurs, rather than adding to the proliferation of nonprofits.”
Clients at the centre of the work
“Nonprofits will have the luxury of working on customised, integrated solutions for clients – making them a name rather than a number. The social sector will work alongside its clients to co-create a system of support based on their unique needs and preferences, and data will be our guide as we evolve to better meet needs.”
True diversity and equity
“Gender, race/ethnicity, religion, sexual orientation and other differences that divide us will not be a factor anymore. Likewise, poverty, disability and illness will not carry the same social stigmas they do today.”
Big insights vs Big Data
“In the future, a common client database will connect all service providers. Through better connection of resources and data mining, the social sector will improve its ability to gain insights, through data and research and increase its focus on continuous improvement and being a learning community.” I crave a more fundamental commitment across the sector to evidence-based practice, and to continuous learning and improvement. However, I still fear how Big Data, algorithms and statistical profiling can be weaponised, and it is usually the marginalised who are more likely to be its victims.
Financing impact
“Thirty years from now, impact investing will be the fulcrum of progress for the social sector. With better data mining and impact measurement, funders will better understand which interventions work and finance them for the long-term, rather than the short-term.” Unfortunately I fear this requires the hubris of ‘investors’ to be held in check, otherwise it could easily just become another (“data defended”) case of ‘funder knows best’.
Whether you agree with these predictions of the pundits or not, or agree, but are worried they might actually eventuate, these are all great prompts to get us thinking and talking together about the ‘big picture’ issues our organisation may have to deal with. Imagine the conversations you could have if you included one of these possible trends in each board or leadership team meeting for the next several meetings. What if we asked ourselves what would it mean for our organisation if society were to head in this direction? What is already happening and how is it subtly affecting us already? What would we need to do to put ourselves in a good position to cope with major dislocations?
What a lead up these conversations among our leaders could be to really thinking again about the shape and direction of our strategy. Trend spotting, let alone predicting, is a hazardous occupation. What we do know is that the only future you can predict with any certainty is the future you make yourselves. Despite so many best efforts, why is there still such widespread ill-ease with governance and board meetings? Why do so many boards feel like they are either interfering in managing the organisation or just going through the motions?
We have long been impressed by Chait, Ryan & Taylor’s (2002) encouragement for boards to add generative thinking to the more common fiduciary and strategic thinking – as a way of returning governance to its leadership role. This requires engaging board members in ‘sense making’, and the kind of generative mindset that these ‘blue sky’ conversations described above can lead to.
If you’d like help in facilitating your board’s discussions and decision-making to incorporate this kind of generative mindset – if you’d like coaching on how to frame issues so that board members can bring to bear their collective mind to tackle difficult problems with a fresh and generative perspective – talk to us at LEAD (info@lead.org.nz). Not only can it help promote a more engaged and effective leadership, in our experience it's also much more fun and makes board meetings more enjoyable. If that seems hard to imagine, it might just be the tool you need!
You can also check out the Social Trend Spotter’s nonprofit trend posts from the past 10 years at https://socialimpactarchitects.com/nonprofit-trends-2023, where you’ll also find information on subscribing to their newsletter.